Though Opposition parliamentarians have succeeded in instituting certain safeguards in Taiwan's Constitution which would check any attempt by the ruling Democratic People's Party under President Chen Shui-bian to push for the island republic's independence from China, it is very likely that the momentum towards that goal will be sustained until at least next year's presidential elections. This would be most unfortunate for it will result in continuing tensions between China and Taiwan. There is no need to reiterate that if there was any issue over which China would be prepared to go to war it would be Taiwan's unilateral declaration of independence. It would be perceived by the Beijing government and indeed by the Chinese people as an affront to their national sovereignty and integrity.

A war over Taiwan's independence could have disastrous consequences for the region and the world. The United States which sees itself, and is seen by the majority of Taiwanese, as the island's protector will almost certainly be drawn into the conflict. After all, the Taiwan Relations Act commits Washington to the defence of Taiwan. Japan also has a treaty obligation to come to Taiwan's aid. Southeast Asian states, a number of which have significant Chinese populations, will also be affected by any Chinese-Taiwanese conflagration.

This is why while the world should urge Beijing to refrain from using force to resolve the issue, there is an even greater need to persuade the Taipei government to desist from its vigorous pursuit of independence. In any case, as far as international law is concerned , Taiwan is an integral part of China. The United Nations recognizes the suzerainty of the Beijing government over the whole of China including Taiwan. The vast majority of UN member states adopt a similar position. It is the main reason why Taiwan's campaign to join the UN in the last 10 years has met with lukewarm response.

However, what is important is not the UN's position but the US's attitude. While the present Bush Administration has stated publicly that it continues to adhere to the `one China' policy it has been somewhat ambivalent about Chen Shui-bian's independence agenda. Washington should make it unambiguously clear that it is opposed to any plan to establish an independent, sovereign Taiwan. Recent US arms sales to Taiwan and certain moves in the realm of diplomacy have created the impression that the former is providing oblique encouragement to the latter's push for independence. To counter such perceptions, President Bush should be as clear cut as former US president, Bill Clinton, was on his Taiwan policy in Shanghai in June 1998.

If the US government expresses openly its opposition to an independent Taiwan Chen and his ruling party will be forced to tone down their rhetoric. They will have to re-think Taiwan's future within the context of perhaps the only feasible solution to the conflict : the one country, two systems formula. Of course, such a formula should contain firm guarantees on the protection of Taiwan's special political and economic characteristics.

Working out the modalities of the formula through bilateral negotiations - rather than upping the ante on independence - should be the Taiwan government's main preoccupation at this point in time.

2 December 2003.